The problem with making predictions

Twitter and the blogosphere is awash with ‘experts’ predicting this and that for 2011. And most of them are telling anyone who cares to listen to them what they got right in 2010. Yawn.

I don’t really see the benefit in predicting the future because it’s made up of too many fluctuating variables including a huge amount of things that haven’t been created yet. I wonder if internet marketing experts were raving about the future effect Facebook and Twitter would have at the beginning of 2006. Doubtful.

Remember, the definition of prediction is  ‘making statements about the future’. So can you do that with any credibility?

Does anyone check if you were right? Does anyone care? And doesn’t it just waste time, draw you away from what you should be doing?

Image Gambling911


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